Tread lightly with these VSIN guys....record they posted is 50-51-1 on Best Bets....
Final Four games
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-4.5, 133) vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats
Peterson: While the Kansas offense rates higher in offensive efficiency than defensive efficiency, the Jayhawks have performed better on defense recently; opponents are shooting just 27.2% from 3-point range the past 14 games.
The Wildcats are ninth in the country in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 28.4%, but are making 32.3% of their 3-point shots the past seven games. Villanova takes 47% of its field goals from 3-point range on the road, which is the highest 3-point rate of any team that made the NCAA tournament.
The Jayhawks have given up 65 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games while the Wildcats have surrendered 65 points or fewer in each of their last eight games.
Villanova’s blueprint for hanging in this game without starter Justin Moore, (second on the team in points per game), might be similar to the one Jay Wright drew up in three 2021 NCAA tournament games without Collin Gillespie: Slow down the game. The Wildcats allowed 61, 62 and 63 points in those games with a pace of 61.4 possessions per game, which is a slower pace than any team has played at the past two seasons.
Pick: Under 133
Murray: Villanova was dealt a devastating blow in the final minute of their 50-44 win over Houston in the Elite Eight when Moore (14.8 PPG) ruptured his Achilles tendon. Unfortunately, Villanova is all too familiar with losing a star player in the postseason: Gillespie tore his MCL in the Big East tourney last year and missed the NCAA tournament. The Wildcats were eliminated in the Sweet 16 by Baylor 62-51, in a game that featured just 57 possessions and sailed under the total of 142.5. The 57 possessions were a season-low for Baylor in 2021 and the 62 points was the second-lowest point total for the Bears, who finished last year second in offensive efficiency per KenPom.
With Moore sidelined, depth will be an issue for Villanova. Jay Wright plays a six-man rotation with Caleb Daniels as the piece that comes off the bench. Daniels will likely be inserted into the starting lineup with limited options behind him off the bench. Even with Moore, the Wildcats have been playing at a slow pace during the tourney: Villanova’s four games have averaged just 60 possessions. The slowest team in the nation, North Texas, averaged 59.3 possessions per game over the season.
In the NCAA tournament, Villanova and Kansas have combined to go under the total in six of their eight games. The Jayhawks and Wildcats are both rated in the top 20 in defensive efficiency per KenPom. Villanova is on pace to become the best free throw shooting team (83%) in the history of college basketball, but as an underdog will that affect the total at the end of the game? Kansas shot unusually poorly from the FT line against Miami (13-of-26) and should improve on Saturday night. The Jayhawks shoot 71.9% from the line this season.
Lastly, the Final Four will be played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Kansas and Villanova are both rated in the top 10 in offensive efficiency but playing the first game in a football stadium can lead to some adjusting to the unusual sightlines as compared to typical basketball arenas.
KenPom projects Kansas and Villanova to combine for 139 points and Bart Torvik projects 136. However, the oddsmakers expect it to be lower scoring -- and I agree. With Moore out, a week to prepare and limited depth, I expect Jay Wright’s squad to try to control the pace like the Wildcats did last year in a loss to Baylor in the Sweet 16.
Pick: Under 133
No. 8 UNC Tar Heels vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-4, 151)
Youmans: Against all odds, Mike Krzyzewski is about to do it again. He’s coaching up a motley crew of junkyard dogs and misfits — a team with five players projected to be NBA first-round picks — and closing in on his sixth NCAA championship and a Hollywood ending. Coach K gets a shot at revenge against North Carolina, which crashed his Cameron Indoor Stadium goodbye party on March 5, in the teams’ first-ever NCAA tournament meeting. This is arguably the most hyped Final Four semifinal matchup since Duke-UNLV in 1991, when the Rebels rolled in on a 45-game winning streak that included 30-point pounding of the Blue Devils in the 1990 title game. Of course, Duke won the rematch, 79-77. And Coach K will probably win this rematch, too.
When the game tips off, the personnel matchups become more important than the sensational storyline. The Devils are slightly more talented at most spots with point guard Jeremy Roach surrounded by versatile wings Paolo Banchero, AJ Griffin and Wendell Moore Jr. and big man Mark Williams. Trevor Keels is an X factor as a strong backup guard. Williams is an interior force and must control the Heels’ Armando Bacot, who totaled 34 points and 37 rebounds in the past two games. Duke’s weakness is defending the 3-point line, and Carolina has shot 40-for-113 (35.4 percent) from deep in four tournament games while running hot and cold. Banchero has lifted his play to another level in this tournament and should emerge as the best player on the floor.
Duke embarrassed Carolina 87-67 as a short road favorite on Feb. 5. When the Heels turned the tables in a 94-81 win a month later, each team shot better than 48% from the field. It would not be surprising if the game gets off to a choppy start, considering the intense atmosphere and tricky shooting background in the Caesars Superdome, but eventually the offenses will find a groove. The first two meetings averaged 164.5 points, so Over 151 should be a popular bet in this game.
The Devils were 11.5-point favorites against the Heels in March, so this line on a neutral court probably appears cheap to some. However, the point spread was inflated in Coach K’s final home game, and the true number at that time probably should have been -9.5. Carolina obviously won the sequel by double digits and comes in as a hot team, so I expected this line to open -4.5 or -5. It will be no surprise if this one is tight in the final two minutes, just as the Duke-UNLV showdown was 31 years ago. The Devils seem destined to win for Coach K, and while I’m not betting against him, I’m not laying the points and will play the moneyline instead.
Pick: Duke -190
Von Tobel: North Carolina deserves credit for making the Final Four, but we should really evaluate this run in greater detail. The Tar Heels received a beautiful path to this point, drawing a small Marquette team in the first round, a Baylor team without its best rebounder, a UCLA squad with an ineffective and injured Jaime Jaquez and the darling St. Peter’s Peacocks who had nary a body to match North Carolina’s size. The Tar Heels won;t be so lucky this time around. Duke has plenty of size and athleticism to throw right back at them.
Paolo Banchero is playing some of his best basketball of the season, averaging 18.5 points and 7.0 rebounds per game on 51% shooting from the floor. He is one of three players – Mark Williams and Theo John being the others – that are 6-foot-9 or taller and can match with the size UNC brings to the table. There is also the matter of this number that bothers me.
When these two met in the regular season finale, the Blue Devils closed as 11-point favorites before losing outright. In the first meeting of the season, Duke was laying 3.5 points in a 20-point win at Chapel Hill. Both of those numbers do not equate to a four-point spread on a neutral court. There is likely going to be an adjustment, but this feels like an overcorrection to me. I’ll lay the points with the Blue Devils.
Pick: Duke -4
Peterson: Defense hasn’t been North Carolina’s forte this season, but the Tar Heels enter the Final Four having allowed 72 points or fewer in each of their last five games (that did not go to OT) and have been holding opponents to just one shot.
While North Carolina does not force turnovers -- ranking 357th (out of 358 Division I teams) in turnovers forced on a per-possession basis away from home -- opponents get a rebound on 18.8% of their missed shots in the Tar Heels’ games away from home, which ranks second in the country.
Duke has been playing at a slower tempo than normal this season, ranking 190th in the country in possessions per game and 71st in the country in 3-point shooting defense. North Carolina is shooting just 34% from 3-point range away from home compared to 39% at home. Expect this one to be a little lower scoring than the oddsmakers expect.
Pick: Under 151
